Canine Capers - Game over

[MadMax]

Welcome to late Mafia Mackay.

I am off to sleep now. :5 am here.

sleep well all.

[Amb]

Mackay, this is why I want Leo to spill his full results, so that I can check the voting histories of each. If he doesnt do it fast enough, Ill suspect he is trying to make the results match his voting patterns.

I intend to try and read Jedo and Leonidas's results together. I do think Jedo is probably telling the truth. But thats a gut feel. Im not choosing until I have Leos results and Im going to contrast them.

[L'layne]

We will say with great reservation as our death means that the town is down to a must get it right in one try scenario in the case of 3 in each family.

We are indeed a hobo. We have no home, so must stay at someone else's. If someone tries to kill us, they miss. If someone targets who we are staying with, we die along with our host. Hence why we knew werebear was lying when he talked about our cage as it does not exist. It is also why we revealed our role name when we did in hopes of drawing some fire. Also for the off chance if Lady found us something would happen though our role description did not mention Lady at all.

[MadMax]

L'ayne: To state the obvious dont hide with Jedo 2nite.

[L'layne]

For the record:

Night 1:Mad Max (low profile player)
Night 2:Mad Max (low profile player)
Night 3:Peregrin (figured no one would shoot a replacement first night)
Night 4: Leonidas (didn't say much, figured no one other then mith would shoot him)
Night 5: Logain (Again, rather quiet, and if mafia, wasn't going to shoot self)
Night 6: Amb (figured no one would shoot the claimed self protector, and if mafia wouldn't shoot self. Not to mention he was so high on the lynch list no one would waste the shot)

Note: Mad max knows how to feed dogs well. Must be all the practice from living with The Dog Pack.

[Talitha]

Wow, the posting rate sure picked up!

I'm not the missing Pongo.... I'm Augie Doggy.

I assume sweetwater got the 'Pongo' result for one of the dead scum. Possibly Logain or Chienfou?

I too am of the opinion that there's most likely one scum left after we lynch Leo.

[Mackay]

I'm about to take a nap (it's not late night here but I only got four hours of sleep) but I have to say this, quite decidedly.

If there are indeed mafia godfathers (and boy-howdy do I hope there are not), L'layne is one of them.

I'll explain this later, should it become necessary. =P

[Talitha]

Heh, 4 uninterrupted hours of sleep? That would be fantastic right about now. *glares at the lump*

[Leonidas]

* writes down *

"L'Iayne: probably innocent".

[Amb]

Im happy to add L'layne to the list of players that are safe. The only thing I need to check now is their reaction to my claim - since we are both self protectors of a type. (Something I find interesting is Mackay believes her outright, which she wont me... )

Other than that - I think our list is broken down easily into Madmax, Jedo and Leonidas and then Mackay, Me, Talitha and L'layne. If Jedo is telling the truth then Leo should be the first to be lynched. Jedo next if he is not.

Vote Leonidas
FOS Madmax - A naive cop doesnt seem plausible, but we have lynched a lot of implausible roles in this game.

The big flaw in this is GodFathers. We havent seen any dead (to my knowledge).

[Leonidas]

Sure. Quite a sight - I claim Snowy, and you vote me, miserable scumbag? Snowy is white and innocent and a cop. And I've told the town you were scum already.

confirm vote: Amb

[Mackay]

[Amb]

Leo - look at it this way. If you are who you say you are, and we lynch you - then Jedo is a liar, and so am I. Thus the town then lynch Jedo or me, and the other the next day. So dont lose any sleep over it. The only backfire is if there is a mafia framer, but there has been no hint to date, that I know of, of Real dogs having special abilities.

You arent who you say you are. Its too similar to my role (origin), and way to late in the game to suddenly claim it whilst disbelieving me. It reeks of scum. And it comes after another claimed cop speaks out. It doesnt ring right.

[Leonidas]

Bah. I identified you as an ideal scum candidate a few days ago. Yesterday, I was sure. As to Snowy not being in the game, it is pure non-sense. And yes, Snowy is WAAAAY more famous that Dogmatix. I am just surprised you did not counter-claim me, but then again, you had already been forced to claim earlier.

I may be fingered by a self-proclaimed cop, and voted for by a scumbag, but this will not prevent me from doing my job until the end.

Of course, I don't intend to lose any sleep on this. Even if the town does not intervene in my favor, it's probably going to be a town win in the end.

[Leonidas]

[Jedo the Jedi]

amb, I can't believe you still suspect me even though I claimed cop. That is either pure stupidity or you really are scum. I will say once more that I was beginning to think you are innocent, but you persist in trying to make me look bad and discredit my results.

Whenever you guys are ready, I am happy to lynch Leo. That way we can go to night and get started on the next day.

[Leonidas]

At this stage, I feel I must ask the town to rescue me. If the remaining townies remain passive while the self-proclaimed cop sides with the remaining mafia to take me down, things are not going to look rosy in the morning. I must say I derive some comfort from knowing that there will still be townies tomorrow no matter what, but still. I have given AMPLE proofs of my pro-towness. I was mistaken about Mith, but I am still Snowy, a famous pro-town role with the ability to investigate one player every night. Jedo is innocent (or a GF). So I am basically screwed. The feeling is not unpleasant, but still - I would like you guys to use your brain. Would Snowy (Tintin's dog) be in a setting of CARTOON DOGS? Yes, and you know it. No one has counter-claimed me. I have fought hard to serve the town by challenging Mith for days. Logain tried to get me lynched, and was revealed scum. I am now claiming a cop-type role. I have useful results for the town, yet no one is interested in them, which I find both strange and - if I may say - worrying. And Amb is clearly, clearly scum. I fingered him yesterday, when it became clear that either Peregrin and him were staging a fight (if part of the same mafia family), or that they were genuinely fighting (if they belong to different mafia families). Today, I am in a position to tell you that AMB IS, INDEED, SCUM. My conviction is not based purely on guts this time. Last night, I used my investigation ability to investigate Amb, of course, given his behaviour of yesterday. So when I received DP's answer (innocent, which actually means guilty because I am insane), it came as no surprise. Regarding my sanity, I must say that the fact that DP decided to deny me investigation results if my targets died on the night I would send their name in made my life quite miserable. It resulted in me going after Mith as hard as I did, and I have to apologize to him. So there - I am sorry, Mith. If you still are not convinced by now, I can only say that a Snowy claim beats a dogmatix claim any day. Why? Well, dogmatix is not that famous overseas (from a European perspective), while Snowy (aka Milou in French) is known worldwide. I guess Asterix was perhaps too French-centric, with a strongly French-oriented sense of humor, and specificities which are not easily grasped by non-Europeans. I won't go into too many details. Tintin, however, is Belgian but global. And so is his dog. If you are still reading this, you are either very bored or very lonely. Or maybe you don't understand mafia. Don't get me wrong: I am not here to judge you. I am here to ask you for your help, support, and protection. There is a scumbag trying to influencing a possible cop (which it is my duty to clear) in order to get Snowy lynched. As I have said again and again, Snowy is pure and white and innocent (as the name suggests - i.e. white as snow, pure as Snow-White, etc.), and a cop. Your support is appreciated at this crucial juncture for the town. We just can't afford to lose a cop now. Thank you for reading this short summary of my thoughts on this game, I hope they will contribute to a town victory - even in the event you should choose poorly tonight.

[MadMax]

Vote Leo

[Leonidas]

Quick precision: when I said -

[MadMax]

Sorry Leo....Simultanious posting.
But, vote stands.

Hope we are right, If not W e know who to vote the next 2 nights.

[L'layne]

Leonidas in post 1070 we said:

[Mackay]

I'm beginning to think that a no-lynch is in order.

[MadMax]

For now...Unvote Leo

State your results or any info.

If you are town and we lynch you,,the info will be helpful.

I am so definatly ANTI- NO VOTE.

[Mackay]

Why? The mafia are more interested in getting one another, than any of us.

Think of it this way.

Worst case scenario: two members of each mafia group left. If this is the case then each will be desperate to kill off a member from the other mafia... because with so few remaining and one mafia team having a numbers advantage, the mafia team with fewer members is almost certainly doomed. This way we do not give either mafia team a numbers advantage, but rather let them slog it out between themselves. If there are two mafia left in each team, and two of them kill one another tonight, then tomorrow we end up in the same situation as today, only with two fewer mafia.

More likely case scenario: one member of each mafia group left. Any mafia, as far as I know, would rather see a town victory than have the opposing mafia win. They are therefore likely to kill one another, giving us the game.

In both of these scenarios it is possible that one of the mafia groups may try to kill Jedo... if this is the case I believe that we have the information to deduce who is on which team and even out the numbers (worst case scenario) or win (more likely). For instance, as I said I believe that Leo is Rottweiler scum and amb is pitbull. Either way if only one dies we can lynch the other.

Similarly, if there are Godfathers... then I would personally believe it to be L'layne for the Rottweilers and MadMax for the Pitbulls. This, of course, is pure speculation... but were it to come to a stage where we know there are GFs, I am confident I could back up this suspicion.
(Disclaimer: In no way do I recommend lynching these two players unless we become certain that there are more scum left than we believe.)

In any case, in terms of numbers I believe no lynching to be best.

[Amb]

[L'layne]

Since we know we are not mafia, we would then have to believe either Mackay or Jedo is mafia for there to be 4 in each family. (We cannot see DP giving one side a mafia GF without giving the other something to counter-balance.) We need to re-read the thread to be absolutely sure, but we doubt Jedo or Mackay is mafia, hence there can only be 2 mafia left (unless there was a second traitor). This means there are no GFs, or at least the GF role is not passed on at death, because otherwise Jedo could not have found Leonidas guilty.

So, we believe we have two mafia left, one of whom has already been found by our cop. Lynching the mafia would wipe out his family, and reduce the number of nightly kills to 1.

We do not advocate a no lynch. If we do a no lynch, the mafia's best chance of winning or drawing is to try to each kill a different townie.

Let's walk through what could happen after a no lynch...

Scenario 1:They both shoot each other. Then they lose.

Scenario 2: One shoots a scum and the other a town. Then it is either 4 or 3 town against one mafia (depending on if they get two for 1 with us). Not the best match up for them, especially if the mafia who lived is say, Leonidas.

Scenario 3: They both shoot the same townie: 6 (or 5) alive, 2 mafia and either 4 or 3 town. One mafia likely hangs, bringing up a senario of 4 (or 3) alive, 1 mafia and either 2 or 3 town. The town still wins if we pick correctly.

Scenario 4: They manage to each kill a different townie. Then the town population is at worse 5 and at best 4(if we die with our host). If the town popultaion is 4 they draw (or have the chance to try their luck for a solo win). If it's 5 then one mafia scum gets lynched and it's 4 going into the night. If they kill 1 townie, its 2 on 1. If we pick who the mafia is wrongly they win outright.

Knowing these outcomes, we cannot rely on the remaining mafia trying to shoot each other. In any of these scenarios except the first, the town is as bad or worse off than if we had lynched.

So we are all for a lynch today. We just want to see if we are all in agreement that the two mafia remaining are Leonidas and Amb before we end the discussion today.

[MadMax]

Leo: Still waiting for your results.

[Amb]

". We just want to see if we are all in agreement that the two mafia remaining are Leonidas and Amb before we end the discussion today."

It goes without saying that you are only 50% right of course.

[Mackay]

Interesting, L'layne. Do you think scum would shoot town and risk being shot by the other scum team?

I would like to hear what Jedo thinks. Results from Leo would be nice too.

[Jedo the Jedi]

I don't know if scum would shoot one another, assuming there is more than one scummer left after Leo. Personally, it would be in their best interest to off us first, then try and eliminate the other. Of course, that's assuming only one side knows who is on the other.

I am against no lynch for today. We should lynch Leo and proceed from there. I'm not sure who I will investigate tonight, but I want to keep it loose in case the mafia wants to off that person. (Assuming they aren't mafia...)

Anything else? I'm getting itchy to off Leo before he persuades you people to do otherwise.

[Mackay]

Why would it be in their best interest to off town? Assuming one mafia on each team, they have EVERYONE else against them. But only one of the everyone can kill them instantaneously. The mafia's best interest is to eliminate that person.

[Amb]

For the record "Well, dogmatix is not that famous overseas (from a European perspective), while Snowy (aka Milou in French) is known worldwide"

I live in New Zealand. If I have heard of Asterix and most people have. Then I have certainly known of Dogmatix.... Leo, get your facts right before spouting off.

Confirm Vote Leo

I cannot see how a no lynch helps us at this stage.

[Mackay]

If you are the opposing scum, of course you cannot. If we kill Leo, he won't kill you tonight and you can try to wriggle your way out of a lynching tomorrow, after murdering our cop.

[Jedo the Jedi]

Not necessarily, Mackay. If they leave each other alone and eliminate town, they can hope that the other scummer doesn't know their identity. That's my point. The town is a bigger, more informed mob that could lynch the scummer without a hitch. Like if I don't die tonight, we could have this game in the bag tomorrow.

If I was scum, I would off some townies that could potentially figure out my true identity and lynch me. If they target each other, then it's just like handing the game to town, which I wouldn't want if I were scum.

[Mackay]

Would you prefer to hand the game to the other scum team, were you scum?

We know almost certainly who the scum are.

And the truth of the matter is, a no lynch gives us the best chance of your survival.

[Jedo the Jedi]

I don't think no lynch gives us the best chance of my survival. One of the scummers would realize that it is foolish to leave me alive, conisdering I will have them nailed tonight.

Let's look at it this way. Leo and Mackay are the scummers. We know about Leo, so he's not going to worry about offing me because he's already found out. He will instead try to target someone else, probably hitting a townie if he doesn't know that Mackay is the other mafia. On the flip side, Mackay knows that Leo is scum too, but she knows that if she keeps me alive, she will be found out and town will win. Her best bet is to kill a townie and lead a lynch on Leo the next day.

Now we are down two townies, possibly three if L'layne is killed. That leaves us with Leo, Mackay, Talitha, and amb alive. Now, two are scum, but only one is known. amb is suspected of being mafia and a likely lynch. We have two likely lynches and if we actually lynch Leo that day, it leaves Mackay with the win.

So, we at least eliminate one scum today that we are for sure of, and deal with the rest tomorrow. (That whole situation is hypothetical, btw. If that scenario is correct, we are screwed.)

[Mackay]

Let's look at it this way.

Using your situation:

Leo would not worry about offing you, because he's already been outed. So he shoots the person who is able to kill him. That would be (in this hypothetical) me. So I would be dead.
I would, knowing that Leo was going to kill me, personally kill him, preferring a town victory to a victory by the opposing scum. However, assuming I was the kind of scum who wanted to do as much damage as possible, I would kill you, Jedo.

On the flipside, were Leo and I scum, and we were to lynch Leo today, I would kill you during the night.

Both ways give us a dead scum and a dead cop (assuming I were to kill you). However, with the no-lynch way it is the unknown mafia who ends up killed.

And if the unknown (probably amb) mafia prefers a town win to an opposing mafia win, then the best case scenario is two scum dead and another cop result.

We also have to take into account that the mafia have more information than we do. If - IF there are GFs, then the mafia know about it and we don't. In this case Leo would still definitely kill opposing mafia because, as I said, they have the opportunity to kill him and he's already outed as scum. But in THIS case scenario, the other mafia team of two people do NOT want to give Leo's team the numbers advantage, and thus kill an opposing scum. Also giving us another cop result.

[Mackay]

I should also point out that if we are mistaken about amb and he is killed, that gives us some valuable information, as far as narrowing the field goes. Though I do not know that there are enough unconfirmed players left for it not to be amb. =]

[Jedo the Jedi]

However, under my situation, Leo does not know that Mackay is scum. Therefore, he would not target her thinking that one of the others was scum. It's all a matter of who Leo thinks is the other scum.

Agreed on the amb bit.

[Mackay]

It is still in Leo's best interest to kill who he believes to be the other scum. If that is me, then it's still better than your dying.