The Excessively Bloody Affair of the Belgoody Mafia-FINISHED

[The Cheshire Man]

Now you know how I felt with amb.
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smile

[Lauritz Melchior]

I think that this is the third time that I've done something silly like this. In one game, I was SKer and at the beginning of day two I reread day one to try to find something about people that seemed guilty. I wrote this huge post about these two people, both of whom turned out to be the ones who'd died the previous night, one by my own hand!

And in another game where we were down to the last three I voted for esme who had never been in that game. It's because I'd been reading this game and she was on my mind.
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2500th member give or take 3

[Courk]

My quick scans of the games I'm in are pretty humorous, at least to me.

OK, this is happening here. It's night there. That's happening in that game. OH MY GOD HE'S NOT DEAD!

[Mgm]

Come on, lynch him already!
I've got nothing more to say and any speculation I could make about other possible mafia is speculation which isn't all that likely to be helpful.

[L'lanmal]

6 Da5id (Courk, mgm, TCM, Da5id, LM)

Not voting (4):
Leonidas, sweetwater

"Let's just get this over with so you know who to vote for tomorrow." Dr. Da5id pulls a bottle of iodine out of his bag and downs it in one gulp. Moments later he falls over dead. Efficient, these doctor types.

And organized! Each item in Da5id's kit is conscientiously labeled. Let's see... a bottle of ether, scalpel, forceps, ornamental mafia knife, needle and thread, catheter, mallet... hey, wait a minute!

3 mafia down. It is night, send choices.

[Lauritz Melchior]

Hehe... catheter. I always get a kick out of that word after hearing a particular David Sedaris short story.
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2500th member give or take 3

[Leonidas]

* Still around, sorry, I know my performance this game day has been unimpressive *

[L'layne]

Day dawns

To no one's surprise you find mgm lying dead on the floor

5 alive, 5 to lynch. No reduction for deadline.

[Mgm]

*Looks up from his grave*
Are you sure? 5 to lynch with 5 people alive is kind of impossible if the scum refuses to lynch themself.
*dies again*

[Courk]

We have 3 lawyers with 2 votes each. There are 8 available votes.

[sweetwater]

I'm ready to implement Courk's plan, and pick TCM.

If we choose wrong, we'll lynch Courk tomorrow.

[The Cheshire Man]

Courk had a plan to lynch me?

If the remaining mafia is a lawyer, which Mgm and I agreed is likely, then lynching the two woodsmen gives him an easy win. I probably won't be a target tonight if you don't lynch me, but I have a feeling the scum lawyer will convince you to lynch either myself or Courk today. Then it will be two lawyers and one woodsman, and the good lawyer will be sorely tempted to lynch the woodsman, whether it's me or Courk.

Which is still our best bet if we're playing it safe. Lynch the wrong lawyer, and scummy-at-law will kill the other good lawyer tonight. That makes it two scum-lawyer votes against Courk's and mine, giving him the win.

My bet is Sweetwater if it's a lawyer, and I'm pretty sure it's a lawyer. If Courk is scum it means she really targeted me the night her gun went off, and then threw suspicion onto mith and Samadhi in order to save herself. I usually count on others to spot contributions I've made and make my case for me, but for completeness sake I'll point out I pretty much got amb lynched, and although I wasn't voting for mith in the final count (I forgot I had unvoted him) I convinced Mgm and Veg not to switch to a different target. It's possible Courk or I could have attacked our scum partners to make ourselves look good -- it's a common mafia tactic -- but if either one of us did we were idiots to carry it this far.
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[Courk]

I find it odd that SW never voted yesterday. We had the scummiest looking scum that ever was, and he never voted, claiming he wanted to discuss tomorrow's (today's) plan, but never really came up with ideas himself.

I'll have to go through this whole thread (oy) and come up with pros and cons for everyone.

[L'layne]

Not voting (8):
Leonidas, sweetwater, Courk, TCM, LM

[Courk]

In the day post, you said there would be no reduction in the number needed for lynching at deadline. Do we have a deadline?

[Lauritz Melchior]

Just a couple of notes that I took early on while reading (I think that they're only on the first 10 or so pages):

"Suspicious of:
Leonidas
Samadhi

Post 108: mith (scum) on Leonidas (?)
Posts 123,124 amb (scum) and Leonidas (?)
Post 129 Leonidas on amb (scum)

TCM? Scum? He really wanted to get amb lynched. Wouldn’t let up.
Post 139
Post 216
Post 239"
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2500th member give or take 3

[The Cheshire Man]

The way I see it, we have three choices.

1. Lynch a lawyer. If it's a lawyer, we have a 1 in 3 chance of winning, but if we lynch wrong we lose. If it's a woodsman, it goes to a three person game where the one lawyer left alive tries to choose whether to lynch Courk or me.
2. Lynch a woodsman. If it's a woodsman, we have a 1 in 2 chance of winning, and a 1 in 2 chance of going to a three player game. If it's a lawyer, we have a 1 in 3 chance of winning and a 2 in 3 chance of going to a three player game.
3. No lynch. We lose another townie tonight and go to a sudden death four player game. I don't like that idea.

Option 2 is starting to look very good. I'm tempted to tell you all to lynch me today and then listen to Courk tomorrow. My two big what-ifs are "What if I'm wrong about Courk?" and "What if the scum lawyer convinces the good lawyer to lynch the woodsman?"

Courk: do you think you could spot which of two remaining lawyers was scum if they lynched me today and vowed to listen to you tomorrow?
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smile

[Courk]

I'm going to type as I ponder over what you said.

Leo - lawyer
TCM - woodsman
Courk - woodsman
SW - lawyer
Lauritz - lawyer

[Lauritz Melchior]

I'm confused by your l*ll and l*lw things =p]
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2500th member give or take 3

[Courk]

Alright, here's the last few paragraphs unabbreviated:

"OK, I'm a woodsman, obviously I know I'm good, and I feel like I have pretty good evidence supporting that. So, it comes down to if TCM is a scummy woodsman. If he is and we lynch him, we win. If he isn't and we lynch him, it's three lawyers and a woodsman going into night, with one lawyer being scum. possible outcomes:

A. 3 lawyers with one being scum
B. 1 woodsman and 2 lawyers, with 1 lawyer being scum

In outcome A, each lawyer has to decide which of the other two is scum - what we'd be doing today if we were going to lynch a lawyer, but today we'd have everyone's input. In outcome B, if the good lawyer believes me, the good lawyer just has to vote for the bad lawyer. I would be left deciding between two lawyers instead of three. By killing TCM today, we have a situation where we have to lynch the correct lawyer or lose - the same situation we'd be facing today, but we wouldn't have that doubt in the back of our minds about TCM.

OK, I'm going to vote for TCM, but before I do that, I want everyone to pretend we're voting for a lawyer today. FOS the lawyer you feel is most suspicious, and provide support for your FOS. I also want the lawyers to defend against FOS's as if they were votes. I want everyone to place themselves in tomorrow's scenario."

[The Cheshire Man]

FoS: Sweetwater

Courk is correct that our best hope is to lynch a woodsman. Please do not vote for a lawyer. Vote for either myself, or Courk.

I've never seen a town benefited by a townie voting themselves, so:

Vote: Courk

And Courk should go ahead and vote for me. Two lawyers are one vote short of lynching power.
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[Courk]

Vote: TCM

Expect my FOS later.

[sweetwater]

Why would you fos someone who has no hands, and is incapable of inflicting harm?

[Courk]

Wait, we don't have to lynch a woodsman.

I'm going to abbreviate this (sorry Lauritz). a* will be the evil lawyer (attorney -- ls didn't seem to show up too well), a will be good lawyers, w* will be the evil woodsman, and w will be good woodsmen.

Currently we have either a*aaww or aaaw*w. Let's start with a*aaww.

1. Currently: a*aaww
   
   1. lynch a good lawyer: a*aww
      
      1. night kill is a good lawyer: a*ww - 2 votes versus 2, mafia wins
         
      2. night kill is woodsman: a*aw - 3 votes versus 2, possible chance to lose. Why do this if killing a lawyer will cause evillawyer to win?
      
      
   2. lynch a woodsman: a*aaw
      
      1. night kill is a good lawyer: a*aw - 3 votes versus 2
         
      2. night kill is a woodsman: a*aa - 4 votes versus 2
   
   
2. Currently: aaaw*w
   
   1. lynch a lawyer: aaw*w
      
      1. night kill is a lawyer: aw*w - 3 votes versus 1
         
      2. night kill is a woodsman: aaw* - 4 votes versus 1
      
      
   2. lynch a good woodsman: aaaw*
      
      1. night kill is a lawyer: aaw* - 4 votes versus 1

Without specifying who is evil, the possible day outcomes are aww, aaw, and aaa. If a lawyer is evil, we won't see aaw unless we lynch a woodsman. If a woodsman is evil, we could see aaw if we lynch a lawyer the evil woodsman kills the good woodsman, but that would just prove that the remaining woodsman was evil, so the best bet for an evil woodsman is to kill another lawyer and create aww. We know that aww would be an automatic win if the last scum was a lawyer, so we wouldn't be voting if the lawyer was scum, so it would have to be one of the woodsmen, and it comes down to the lawyer deciding which one it is.

I say we lynch a lawyer today. If the last scum is a lawyer, and we lynch the wrong one, we lose. If the last scum isn't a lawyer, we'd just have to lynch a woodsman the next day. It's just reversing the order of things. Earlier when I said lynching TCM would get rid of any of our doubts about him, it didn't make much sense. We'd just be lynching him to find out IF he was scum, not because we THINK he's scum. Since I don't think he's scum, I don't see any need to lynch him yet. Even if I'm totally wrong about him, lynching a lawyer, one of whom seems really scummy, won't end the game. Should TCM be mafia, we'd still have tomorrow to get him. It makes more sense to lynch the scummiest person since it's more likely that they're mafia than to lynch someone who seems innocent.

That's enough of a rant on that.

Now, sweetwater. I'm sure Elayne and L'l would randomly assign roles. This means they wouldn't take any notice of who had hands or not when they doled out town and scum. However, since a mafia game that comes down to one scum who can't kill would be incredibly dull, I think they also made a provision for armless people to be able to kill. Someone, possibly even L'layne themselves, pointed out that an armless person could grip a knife in their mouth.

Unvote: TCM

[Courk]

What it comes down to is that in order to not lose tonight, we kill a woodsman, but tomorrow we'd be faced with essentially the same situation as today anyway, if we decide to lynch a lawyer now.

[Courk]

[The Cheshire Man]

I have to admit, you've lost me. If we lynch a lawyer at random, we have a:

20% chance of instantly winning
40% chance of instantly losing
13.3333...% chance of winning tomorrow (with three players)
26.6666...% chance of losing tomorrow (with three players)

If we lynch a woodsman at random, we have a:

20% chance of instantly winning
26.6666...% chance of winning tomorrow (with three players)
53.3333...% chance of losing tomorrow (with three players)

What lynching a woodsman first does is eliminate the possibility of instant loss. 33.3333...% vs. 46.6666...% is 1 in 3 vs. almost even odds. Unless you are positive which lawyer it is, or you are positive it's either that lawyer or me, you should stick your vote back on me and let the lawyers decide.
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[Courk]

It only eliminates the possibility of instant loss for today. If we lynch you, we can be left with either all 3 lawyers alive tomorrow, or two lawyers alive and me. I doubt the latter will happen because then the good lawyer would know who was scum, and it'd be up to me. Should all 3 lawyers be alive, neither of the good ones would know for sure who was evil. And at the rate the lawyers are participating, I wouldn't be surprised if it was deadlined and no one got lynched that day. If I were an evil lawyer I would aim for the 3-lawyers-alive-tomorrow scenario, because it seems a tad more beneficial to the mafia. In any tomorrow scenarios, one wrong vote by a townie results in the mafia being able to exploit that to win. Today, though, at least two townies have to be making the same mistake to get an innocent lynched.

[Lauritz Melchior]

Out of the two of you, I don't know who to vote for, and I still have this nagging suspicion that neither of you are scum. Yet I suspect that we have one mafia-member from each role. Four roles, one member per role. I'll find some reason to choose one of you two eventually.
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2500th member give or take 3

[Courk]

This rant is still referring to TCM's post.

No, I'm not 100% sure about any lawyer, nor am I sure it's between you and that lawyer. However, I won't be any more sure tomorrow. In fact, I'll probably be more dead tomorrow. I don't think you are scum, and I don't see how lynching someone I think is innocent can help the town.

[The Cheshire Man]

Unvote: Courk

Okay, I can see where you're coming from, and you've got a good point. While I'm not sure it's sweetwater, I'm pretty sure it's either sweetwater, Veg/LM, or Courk. In other words, I'm willing to bet the game that Leonidas is innocent. If Xylax/Courk or I happen to be the final mafia, then we'll get another chance tomorrow, regardless who we vote for today. If it's a lawyer who is guilty, better to choose between LM and sweetwater while Leo and both woodsman are around to offer input, rather than leaving it up to just one of us tomorrow.

On a side note: If Courk and I both vote for the same person, we'll need two lawyers to reach the majority. If just one of us votes, he or she will still need two lawyers to make a majority. In other words, as long as one of us is voting for someone, there's no reason for the other to vote for them too.

Vote: Sweetwater with LM as my second choice.
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[Courk]

SW is the one I'm suspicious of, too. Saying that he's harmless because he has no hands after the mods have stated that there is still the possibility of armless people killing.

[Lauritz Melchior]

Ah. I hadn't understood that that's what L'layne had meant in that post. Just because we've gotten "left handed" or "right handed" from detectives doesn't mean that one couldn't get "no hands". Sweetwater could still have managed to kill somehow. For instance, there's an old Lon Chaney Sr. movie about a circus freak with no arms. The reason that he has no arms, however, is because he's afraid to show people his double thumb! Yes, that's right, he has a double thumb, and has therefore learned how to live without arms so that people wouldn't make fun of him. But he still manages to kill, and who would suspect poor armless what'shisface. Gah! I can't remember the name of the movie. Still, though, the point remains that no arms does not an innocent make. Also, Sweetwater's predecessor was very quiet for much of the game, lurking.

Still, there are four woodsmen, and we've had one of each other role as mafia. Hrm...
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2500th member give or take 3

[Courk]

Once again, though, if we lynch an innocent lawyer and the last scum is a lawyer, we lose. If we lynch an innocent lawyer and the game's still going, we know it's one of the woodsmen. And since the most suspicious person is a lawyer, it makes the most sense to kill the lawyer first.

[Courk]

Can Leo be prodded? His last post was a week ago.

[sweetwater]

Town has two choices depending on whether it believes scum is lawyer or woodsman:

Lawyer is scum (60%). Lynch lawyer. Smartchoose or lose (33%, win expectation = 20%).

Woodsman is scum (40%). Lynch woodsman. If wrong, then lynch the remaining (100%, win expectation = 40%).

[Courk]

Really, you're just making me more and more suspicious of you. Can you explain why you claimed having no arms makes you harmless, when our very own mods explained differently? To me it seems like you're trying to look as innocent as possible without providing any evidence from your actions in this game.

[Lauritz Melchior]

Seriously. Just because you have no arms means nothing other than what clues a detective might get when investigating a crime.
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2500th member give or take 3

[The Cheshire Man]

Interesting. The only person we can lynch without Leo is...Leo. Whom I don't want to lynch.
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smile

[Courk]

I'd hate to have him replaced, and then have to wait for the replacer to read all 21 pages (that could be a good 3 day or more task), but as it is now, nothing is getting done.