Texas Justice Mafia (Game over)

[mith]

Current Status: Town wins.

When word of an underground criminal organization gets out in the podunk town of Tightwad, Texas, the townsfolk decide to take matters into their own hands. The noose is tied, the shotguns are loaded, but one question remains unanswered: Who are the Mafia?

Alive:
Digit Ne
Jedo the Jedi
MadMax
Mgm
mole
mudbuck
Quagmire 2 (replacing mikehart)

Dead:
Quagmire (Texan for Texas) - killed night 1
Quailman (Texan for Texas) - killed night 1
Annoyingpest (Texan for Texas) - lynched day 1
Porro (Texan for Texas) - killed night 2
Samadhi (Texan for Texas) - killed night 2
Annoyingpest2 (replacing Neo) (Wild Bunch) - killed night 3
cloudRunner (Wild Bunch) - killed night 3
Courk (Wild Bunch) - killed night 3
Klemmen Verbindung (Texans for Texas) - killed night 3
Legend of Tenshi (Wild Bunch) - killed night 3
Logain (Texans for Texas) - killed night 3

Setup:

4 Mafia:

You are the Wild Bunch (Mafia). Each night you may choose one person to kill. Your kills will be indistinguishable from vigilante kills.

14 Texans for Texas:

You are a one shot vigilante. Once during the game, you may choose to kill someone. If you decide to kill at night, please send your choice ASAP.

Standard Rules:

1. The moderator's ruling is final. If you think that a decision is unfair, feel free to post why you think so after the game is over. Moderators can always use constructive criticism. Do not, however, be nasty about it.
2. Do not post anything game-related at night. Most moderators will close the threads at night, but it is still your responsibility to check that it is daytime before you post. (note: Only an issue in twilight, as I will be locking threads. See below.)
3. Do not post anything game-related (even "I suspect him!") once you are dead. In particular, if day has just started, make sure that you haven't died before revealing information you just received at night.
4. Votes should look like: Vote: Player. Some moderators will not count a vote unless it is in this format. (note: Unvotes for switches are not necessary, but include them if you like.)
5. Never show emails or PMs from the moderator to anyone in the game. Quoting your PM to prove your innocence is strictly forbidden. (note: Not relevant, the PMs are quoted above.)
6. Do not discuss the game with other players outside of the thread unless you are part of the group, and only do that at night.
7. Do not sign up for a game under two different names. You will get caught, and possibly banned if I am feeling mean. (Ok, probably not, but moderators are unlikely to let you play.)
8. Lynching requires a >50% majority. If a deadline is required (see 9), the player with the most votes will be lynches as long as they have >1/3 of the population voting for them. If there is a tie, then:
a. If it is a 50-50 split, both will be lynched.
b. If there are players not voting for one of the two, day will continue until someone unvotes, switches, or adds a vote to one of the two.
9. Deadlines will only be used if the post rate drops below a 1 post per player for day average. For the purposes of this rules, consecutive posts by the same player will be counted as one post. Deadlines will last 48 hours, not counting Sundays, and will be very strict since there will be no role claiming or cop/etc. information revealed.
10. As soon as someone reaches a majority, or the deadline is reached, day is over. Try to remember to check the thread before you post if it is near a majority/deadline.
11. Night deadlines will last a minimum of 48 hours and a maximum of 72 hours, not counting Sundays. As soon as I have the Mafia choice after the minimum, I will post the scene and day will start. Therefore, if you want to use your vigilante kill, send it ASAP.

(note: This is a mirror of a series of games that will run on mafiascum. If you sign up there, don't sign up here, and vice versa. Since it's possible that an interesting strategy might come up in any of the games, I would prefer you did not read the other game until yours is completed, but that is, of course, unenforcable )

[mith]

We're a day over the deadline, and I have not received confirms from:

Logain
mikehart
Quagmire
Samadhi

Don't want to get started until I'm sure everyone is here.

[Samadhi]

I didn't see that you wanted confirms. Sorry about that.
_________________
And he lived happily ever after. Except for the dieing at the end and the heartbreak in between.

[mith]

Night scene will be posted after lunch, sorry for the delay, wasn't able to get on over the weekend.

[mith]

It's midnight in Tightwad, and almost everyone is asleep.

On one farm, however, there's a gun being pointed at the owner's head.

"I don't like the looks 'a you, fellar."

"Not again..."

"Quiet, you. I reckon you're one 'a them there alien zombie fellars."

"Alien zombies?"

"I heared about 'em on the radio. My cousin over in Bucksnort says you was shot, and now here you are. Seems mighty mysterious if you ask me."

"Can you ask someone else, then?"

"Naw, it's late, wouldn't want to go disturbin' the locals. I reckon I'll just kill you."

Meanwhile, on another farm, a similar fate awaits Quagmire. This murder is particular gruesome because some divine power is obviously annoyed about Quagmire not "confirming", whatever that means.

***

The community of Tightwad, population 20... make that 18... discovers Quailman's brains and Quagmire's... well, let's not discuss that... splattered on their respective farms. Quickly a mob forms to lynch the criminals responsible... but first they have to decide who they are.

Quagmire (Town) and Quailman (Town) are dead. It's day 1, 10 to lynch.

[Porro]

Random yeehaw Vote: Tenshi
_________________

[Mgm]

Random vote: Porro

[mole]

So what crazy ideas have people had for making the next night a bloodbath?

I haven't progressed much past the first scenario (aka A Huge Gamble): if everyone shoots the player below them on the list (looping around) then only one member of the mafia will be able to shoot someone. So three people don't get kills, meaning there are three people left alive at the end of the night.

The only way there'd be two mafia left is if they were in a group of three, something like:

Annoyingpest (town) kills cloudRunner
cloudRunner (mafia) no kill
Courk (mafia) no kill
Digit Ne (mafia) kills Jedo

Of course if this is the case we automatically lose...

[Quailman]

bah! I signed up for this one when I got first-night killed in the scum game.

[MadMax]

Yahooooooooooooo!

Random vote Mikehart

[MadMax]

Also Mole,,,,,,,,having just read your post Mikehart happens to be 1 below me......Now that is spooky.

[Samadhi]

For mole's proposition there is a:
0.9% chance of it coming down to 3mafia, 1 town. (0% chance of win)
14.5% chance of it coming down to 2 mafia, 2 town. (0% chance of win)
48.4% chance of it coming down to 1 mafia, 3 town. (25% chance of win)
36.3% chance of it coming down to 4 town. (100% chance of win)

That works out to 48.4% chance of winning.
_________________
And he lived happily ever after. Except for the dieing at the end and the heartbreak in between.

[Samadhi]

Correction, reduce number of townies on each by 1. Oddly enough, that increases the odds to 52.4%
_________________
And he lived happily ever after. Except for the dieing at the end and the heartbreak in between.

[Klemmen Verbindung]

I is not one for da percenting calculationing ting an ting maths brain from da clever dudes. Dey mus' be hidin' sommet like a small willy or lack of da bling bling or dey is da mafioso scummers. So fa dat I an I is gonna Vote: Samadhi dude an suspect finger some womany thing later.
Respect.

~Boogies on down to NSYNC~

[Jedo the Jedi]

I'd suggest that the vig who used his power last night speak up, but we couldn't really prove it so I guess that's a no-go. Hmm, this could be interesting. The only way to win is for all of the mafiosos to be targeted. I guess we just pick somebody and bandwagon. There's not much else to do. Unless we go with a no-lynch. What do others think?

[Courk]

Why couldn't we prove it? I mean, sure, it wouldn't be 100% sure, but claims never are. Wouldn't it be crazy for the mafia to claim to be that one vigilante? Everyone knows it can't be quagmire, since quagmire never confirmed, and sending in a choice would have been a confirmation, no?

[Courk]

Oh, wait, could have been quailman.

[Courk]

Sorry for the triple post, but I had to go eat before my thought was finished. Even though Qman could have been the lone attacking vigilante, it would still be risky for scum to claim that they were the attacker. Plus, knowing Qman, it's rather unlikely that he did attack last night. He'd wait to get information and build suspicion against someone before attacking.

[Legend of Tenshi]

Now this could be a TSG plot but there may have been more than one shooter. Just saying

Of and for a OMGUS vote VOTE PORRO
_________________
Tech support sucks

[Digit Ne]

Vote: Klemmen Verbindung for boogieing to da NSYNC.

[cloudRunner]

Vote: Neo

I hear that fella's from the Matrix! Now where in tarnation is that? He's gotta be an alien dude!
_________________
Forever is such an unpleasant word

[mudbuck]

(Off-Topic)
Assuming that the one-shot ability of the townie is really only one shot, why wouldn't the shooter steal the dead person's ammo (realisticly)?
_________________
1000oclock.com

[Samadhi]

Jedo, et al.: Please re-read mith's post. There was only a mod killl and one other kill, which I would assume was the mafia (unless they decided not to kill, yeah right).
_________________
And he lived happily ever after. Except for the dieing at the end and the heartbreak in between.

[mole]

Sam: I missed something in my theory (can't even get the most basic scenario right... ) - there can be two mafia surviving if they are in two groups of two. Did your numbers account for that?

52.4% isn't exactly the best odds, though.

[mith]

Note: Quagmire was not a mod kill. I just wrote it that way in the scene.

Second note: mikehart has still not confirmed. He has 24 hours or he will be replaced.

[Porro]

Thanks for clearing the Quagmire situation up.

One problem with moles theory is that the mafia, knowing how they are placed in the list, may try to persuade us that the mass kill is a good idea if it works to their benefit, or vice versa if it doesn't. Lies, damn lies, and statistics...
_________________

[Samadhi]

mole: Of course they did.
mith: Thanks for the clarification.
_________________
And he lived happily ever after. Except for the dieing at the end and the heartbreak in between.

[Jedo the Jedi]

Porro, good point.

With all of these thoughts taken into consideration, I think that we should randomly bandwagon somebody. Then, at night, nobody should use their kill. This way, it minimizes our chances of killing too many townies. Anybody else have an idea?

[Courk]

The mass kill is tempting since it does favor the town. However, if the town has a 52% chance of winning, the mafia have a 48% chance. I don't know if I want to gamble that much. It'd be an all-or-nothing shot. If we don't mass kill, we can use our kills to slowly get those who seem most suspicious, but then we run the risk of multiple people using their shots on one person.

Also, mass killing seems against the whole idea of the game. Then again, mith designed it, so he could be hoping we try that...

[Annoyingpest]

lol you guys really want to shoot each other and see who's left standing?

[Legend of Tenshi]

In a situation with no investigators I could actually see the shoot now and watch for the second coming actually working. 52% is a reasonably good chance.
_________________
Tech support sucks

[Porro]

Can anyone verify the statistical analysis though? I know I can't.

So do we take the word of a single player regarding the likelihood of success? I'd ideally want want at least 5 players to agree on the probability analysis (i.e. 1 more player than there is mafia)
_________________

[MadMax]

I studied statisyics in school, but forget it all......no confirmation here.

[mith]

Kinda dragging, guys. Not going to set a deadline this early, but I will soon if nothing happens.

Vote count later.

[mith]

Oh, and the ghost of Quagmire is replacing mikehart.

[mith]

Vote Count: 10 to lynch

Porro: 2 (Legend of Tenshi, Mgm)
Legend of Tenshi: 1 (Porro)
Klemmen Verbindung: 1 (Digit Ne)
Neo: 1 (cloudRunner)
Quagmire2: 1 (MadMax)
Samadhi: 1 (Klemmen Verbindung)

[Mgm]

Samhadi, can you explain where you pulled these numbers from? I'm not going to support a mass killing if I don't understand the chances myself.

[cloudRunner]

There are 4 scum alive. Do they have one-shot abilities too? Assuming they don't, that means that a mass kill will leave at least 4 townies alive (assuming that they are not next to each other alphabetically). That's probably the best chance we have.

Worst case scenario (assuming that mafia don't have one-shot kills)
If all 4 of the mafia are next to each other. Only 1 mafia person will be killed, leaving 3 mafia alive and 1 townie left (the townie who is alphabetically after the person who already used their kill last night).

I'm still quite ambivalent about doing this.
_________________
Forever is such an unpleasant word

[cloudRunner]

But wait.. even if the mafia have one shot-kills, it won't direcly affect the mass kill itself (since they won't target each other and they won't know who the vigilante who didn't use their kill was). But they'll be able to clean up on anyone else still standing.
_________________
Forever is such an unpleasant word

[mole]

If Quagmire was shot by a vigilante then there's one townie out there who can no longer kill. We should find out who that is (if it's not Quailman) if we're planning on having a huge shoot-out.