Rebellion Mafia: Night Two

[rebel lord]

Playing:
1: Andrew Sullivan
2: Werebear
3: Quailman
4: drummer97531
5: MadMax
6: Porro
7: Quagmire
8: BigBenWD (replacing Prussian)
9: Maximus
10: Nauplius
11: Sweetwater
12: Egon


Rules (stolen and edited):

Nights will last about 3 days. Please always send in night choices as fast as possible. I will not hunt you down. You don't choose- you don't get. Simple as that.


If days are lasting to long and/or there is a lack in discussion then I will impose a deadline. If discussion picks up I may extend the deadline. Or if several people PM a request to extend the deadline I may or may not do so- depending on how I'm feeling.


Votes must be in bold. If you do not bold your vote, it will not be counted.


You must unvote, before casting a new vote. Please specify who you are unvoting, this helps me sometimes and other players as well.


Lynching will require a simple majority of votes. Once a player has reached the necessary majority, his pleas are useless and any attempts to unvote will be unheeded.


You may vote: no lynch – majority votes of this kind are necessary to end the day without a death.


The game is not to be discussed outside of the thread unless your role specifically states that you may do so.


Once your death scene has been posted, you’re dead. Stop typing ANY relavent information.


Don’t edit/delete previously submitted posts


Don’t quote any messages from me. You are liable to get mod-killed if you do.


If you have a night choice to make, it is due by the posted deadline. I will not wait for you – if you do not submit a choice to me I will make a choice for you, which might result you being quite unhappy


If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period, please post a notice to that effect in the thread. Treat this game as a commitment. Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging.


I should post a vote count, ever so often, maybe every page or every alternate one. Please feel free to request one should you deem it necessary.


If you have any questions, you can pm me or ask in the thread. I'll get back to you as soon as possible, and with the best explanation that I can. You can also pm me if you want to tell someone about your day, or you thought something another player wrote was funny, or just to say hi.


I am always right, but not always accurate. If I've made a mistake, please tell my by email as soon as possible. If you try to notify me in thread, I'll have to to edit your post and you will most likely be mod-killed.


If I'm going to be unavailable for more than a day, I'll post that information



[This message has been edited by rebel lord (edited 03-26-2004 03:42 PM).]

[Quailman]

vote: Replace Prussian

[Quagmire]

vote: send me a role

[rebel lord]

Sorry Quagmire. I'll send you your role when I get back to school were I seem to have left my floppy.

[This message has been edited by rebel lord (edited 03-08-2004 12:02 AM).]

[rebel lord]

I have sent an e-mail to quagmire. BigBen has been PMed on Mafiascum.

[Quagmire]

I still have not recieved. Perhaps try sending an email to: zwiefecj AT yahoo DOT com

[BigBenWD]

/confirm (do I do that here? (is that even a face here?))

[rebel lord]

Quagmire, I sent an e-mail to that address. Please confirm if you recieved it.

[Quagmire]

I got the role!

[rebel lord]

Last night, Werebear had just gotten into bed when he heard a knock at his door. He ignored it hoping whoever it was would go away. The knocking continued and Werebear climbed out of bed, dressed quickly and walked to the door. He opened it, and looked out to see a huge muscular man dressed in black with a mask over his face. He had just enough time to see the axe the man carried before it connected with his head.

Werebear, a townie, is dead.
Day 1 begins now. Please begin voting. A deadline will be set if I think it necessary.

[Egon]

Hooray, that must've been the longest night ever. But shouldn't the title be changed?

[Bear Skin Rug]

Bah!!! Like I'd get out of bed for a knock on the door. I need my beauty rest, you know. Lots... and lots... of beauty rest.

[Nauplius]

I'll start:

random first day Vote: drummer97531

[Porro]

Originally posted by Egon:

---

Hooray, that must've been the longest night ever

---

Ah the innocence of youth

Random vote Fred...now that IS random

[BigBenWD]

vote:porro... that is all

[MadMax]

Am present and awake.
No random vote though.

[drummer97531]

random vote: Quailman

[BigBenWD]

Who would have wanted to kill wearbear day 1?

[sweetwater]

Results of Excel random function, sorted ascending:

code:

---

BigBenWD          0.004613


Andrew Sullivan   0.042004


MadMax            0.186783


Quagmire          0.240299


Porro             0.512782


Maximus           0.609385


Egon              0.903760


Quailman          0.914035


drummer97531      0.952020


Nauplius          0.982396

---

Therefore, Vote: BigBenWD

[Maximus]

No random vote on my part

[BigBenWD]

.. sweetwater, what is that measuring?

[sweetwater]

It's the Scum Index, an indicator of a player's plausible mafianess, based on the player's personal profile, most recent performances and behavior, and other weighting factors. The formulas used in determining the index are empirically derived from historical data and calibrated in the field for error correction. Please don't ask about the various calculation methodologies used as they are more complicated than those used in the BCS. Just remember that the results are known to be accurate with a 90% level of confidence.

[BigBenWD]

well, wouldnt that mean I was only .4% of scumminess?

[sweetwater]

Ben, it is indeed possible that your observation about your degree of scumminess - if that's the word - may be true. Sad to say however, it is highly improbable.

Lest I am misconstrued, I must hasten to mention here that the numbers listed in the table have no intrinsic values in themselves. Rather, these numbers are comparative and are only used to rank the corresponding names in increasing order: they have no other meaning or purpose. Thus, even though you might rightfully think you are only 0.040% scum, Andrew is certainly less scum at maybe 0.036%, MadMax even less at 0.023%, and so on. One never really knows the exact degree, nor is it relevant to know. You are still the Head Scum just the same. And based on past experiences with sampling populations of 10 or more, I would say there is no likelihood that your scumminess can be that miniscule, and it could in fact be as high as 80%. This is consistent with previous results I have encountered.

I am also compelled to tell you that I have made several iterations in an honest attempt to eliminate any flaw or skewness in the procedure. Unless anyone refutes my findings I am going to stand by my original assertion.

[Porro]

How can anyone argue with that?

Vote: BigBenWD

But you'd better be right Sweetwater

[Quailman]

I ran my own scumminiess index with the following interesting results:

code:

---

Sweetwater		0.003555608


Nauplius		0.016205958


MadMax			0.11998026


Werebear		0.328009214


Egon			0.339150008


Andrew Sullivan		0.370036434


Porro			0.537456199


Quagmire		0.568657217


drummer97531		0.842267453


Maximus			0.898564798


BigBenWD		0.993858796

---

vote: sweetwater

[Egon]

**** FURTHER PROOF THAT BigBenWD IS SCUM ****

code:

---

   B   I   G   B   E   N   W   D


   2   9   7   2   5  14  23   4     - as numbers


   2   9   7   2   5   5   5   4     - digits added


  \_____/ \_____/ \_____/ \_____/


   2       9       1       9         - digits added

---

Thus, "BigBenWD" is 2919.

• Turn the number backwards and subtract 1904 - the year Oppenheimer was born. The number is now 7288.
  
  
• Now turn the number backwards again and divide it by 7 - the sacred number of Illuminati. The number is now 1261.
  
  
• Multiply it by 6, the smallest perfect number - the number is now 7566.
  
  
• Subtract 1815, which is the year the first commercial cheese factory was established. Now you have 5751.
  
  
• Turn the number backwards a final time and add 1966 - the year "Star Trek" premiered. The number is now 3541.
  

Take 3541, and convert it to octal. You will get 1889 - the year Adolf Hitler was born.

BigBenWD is obviously scum, QED.

Oh, and Vote: BigBenWD, for being scum

[Andrew Sullivan]

I've never used the whole Excel function thing, so I'm not entirely sure I should trust it. But I'll go with the flow and
randomly vote: BigBenWD

[drummer97531]

I've seen no logic so far, just what appears to be odds. Of course, Egon's calculations make perfect sense, but since Ben's two away, I guess a roleclaim should be arriving soon.

[BigBenWD]

did you guys seriously just put 3 random votes on me?
vote: Andrew sullivan for giving me the 4th vote on a random bandwagon

[sweetwater]

I have detected a fatal flaw in Quailman's calculations - he included Werebear, a dead townie. According to the manual, when such situation is reached, the order of the results must be reversed to compensate for the error. In which case, BigBen should now be on top of the list, which verifies my initial findings.

[Porro]

quote:

---

did you guys seriously just put 3 random votes on me?
vote: Andrew sullivan for giving me the 4th vote on a random bandwagon

---

Ha! I thought the third spot on the bandwaggon was the scum position

But seriously, usually someone has to roleclaim and/or die on day one due to the whim of a random bandwaggon. Why are you so suprised that it has happened to you?

[Quailman]

[BigBenWD]

fine, you want me to claim? I'm a townie... plain and simple.

[Quailman]

Bah! I don't believe you. I think you're a rebel.

[Nauplius]

Originally posted by Andrew Sullivan:

---

But I'll go with the flow and randomly vote: BigBenWD

---

Going with the flow is not random. Unvote: drummer, Vote: Andrew Sullivan

[Quagmire]

...No random vote. Sorry for not posting, I was grounded from the computer this weekend.

[Porro]

Originally posted by Quailman:

---

Bah! I don't believe you. I think you're a rebel.

---

You mean he's in cahoots with the mod?

[Quailman]

As Porro said, usually someone has to die on day one because of a random bandwagon. You have a choice of voting randomly or making up a reason, or simply bandwagoning. But don't 'randomly' go with the flow. I know you're new here, but that spells scum.

vote: Andrew Sullivan

[Andrew Sullivan]

That was actually an accident when I typed randomly. However based on sweetwater's post about the incorrect data, so I will
unvote: BigBenWD

I would also like to inform you all that I'm a townie and if you lynch me, the mafia will just have an easier job of winning.