Let's critique one another's poker play!

[Mackay]

This thread was inspired by a random discussion which began to spring up between Samadhi and I. I'm hoping there are enough poker players interested in either improving their game or making fun of other people to keep this thread afloat.

First off I'm going to launch a defense of the hand Samadhi and I started talking about.

It was down to the final two tables in a live tournament. The blind structure was ridiculously steep, so that I went from being comfortable to shortstacked within a few hands (I was actually one of the biggest stacks in the tourney, until I doubled up two very short [3BB and 5BB respectively, IIRC] stacks when my AK<A6 and my AJ<KT).

The table was 6-handed, it was down to the final 12 or 13. The blinds were 5,000/10,000, and I had 70,000 in chips left. The table folded around to me on the button. I looked down at AdJd and immediately went all-in.

(The happy ending to this story is that I was called by both blinds: AJo and QJ [I don't remember whether or not it was suited]. The sad ending to the happy ending is that the BB hit a Queen and I busted out. )

Here's Sam's latest post on the subject:

[Courk]

Sometimes I like to read the Bridge column in the paper, just so I can feel completely clueless. Now I can turn here, too.

[The Ragin' South Asian]

You should have just hit a shot to the cow corner for 6, or maybe a banana kick if you're feeling lucky.

[Mackay]

Okay. So I've discovered that Full Tilt hasn't been saving my hand histories for some reason, even though I have the option selected. So I'll have to do this from memory.

Here's a hand where I may well have made a horrible decision.

Single-table tournament, 9 players, five of them left. The payout structure was flat - it was a satellite tournament with two tickets for 1st and 2nd, and a cash payout for 3rd which is worth only a little less than the tickets.

I'd had a big chiplead until a few hands earlier, when the second-biggest stack made a semibluff, I called him on it, and he hit his draw. So I may or may not have been tilting, also. =)

I had about 1,450 chips left. I'll call myself seat 1 and number them for convenience.
Seat 2 was the guy who doubled through me, with a bit over 8,000.
Seat 3 had about 1,800
SB was a shortstack, I forget how short.
BB had somewhere in the mid 1000s as well, about the same as me.

I picked up ATo under the gun. The table had been extremely tight and passive, folding to most raises and any flop aggression unless they had a good hand (hence my previously huge chipstack). I hit the "Raise Pot" button, and it raised to 480. I had not realised this, but the blinds had just gone up to 90/180. (I remember the exact numbers because I thought "hey, the pot doesn't add up to 480!") That was more than I wanted to commit, and I already did not like this hand. =)

Big stack folds. The next guy, the one with 1800 chips, shoves all in instantly. It folds back around to me... and I call.




Let me offer my reasons. Well, reason.

I knew I was crushed. Considering how tight the table had been, I had to have him on either a big pair or a better Ace. Actually I was pretty sure he had AK (I was wrong ), but in either case I was drawing to 3 outs (I actually didn't consider Aces, partly because I had one and partly because my gut was screaming AK at me). A smaller pair was possible, but not likely. I'm pretty sure a bluff was out of the question. In any case I was about a 70/30 underdog, and I knew it.

Half of it was pot odds. I'm not sure whether the call was correct in this respect or not, because it was very close. It was about 2.33:1 against me, if I'm right about the 70/30, and I was getting around 2.25:1 to call (assuming no antes - I don't remember whether there were any or not). I wasn't quite getting the right price, but I was almost getting the right price.

The other factor which I took into account was the structure of the tournament. Because of the flatness of the payout structure, once a player accumulates a bit of a stack, they tend to just sit on it and let other people battle it out as much as possible. I would have had just under 1000 chips remaining - 5 and a bit BBs, so I could still have tried to make a comeback from there, had I folded. The problem was that the players would be seeking to avoid confrontation unless they had a big hand. I might have picked up a few blinds, and maybe managed to hold out until the money, but I think the slightly-larger-than-mine stacks would have been doing the same thing. So, I went for the double-up, which would put me in a better position to abuse the smaller stacks. (Nobody wants to bust out in 4th!) This factor, combined with the reasonable pot odds, got a call out of me.
Plus, like I said, I was a bit tilty, having lost a huge pot not long before - so there was an element of "ah, screw it".

Anyway, feel free to tell me what a donkey I am for calling an all-in reraise with ATo. I'm really not sure whether I agree with myself for having made that call, or if I just decided I was right at the time out of frustration/impatience.

Results of the hand (invis): He turns over QQ. I flop an Ace. He abuses me for the rest of the time he spends in the tournament (not long, given his ~400 chip stack) about what a fish I am and what an idiot I am for thinking my ATo was good. Surprisingly enough, this gets me laughing out loud and lifts my spirits - probably because he thought that I thought my ATo was good - and I regroup and go on to win the tournament. =)

[Mackay]

[The Ragin' South Asian]

I would have put in an extra attacker to try to get the biscuit in the basket, or maybe even beavered the doubling cube.

[Courk]

*fights urge to turn this into Mornington Crescent*

[Courk]

GAH! You can't beaver the doubling cube when it's a high-stakes 80-over-20.

^{Sorry, couldn't fight it.}

[The Ragin' South Asian]

Reference I don't get instead of "Your Mom" joke? What's become of this place?

[Antrax]

It's very comical to spam discussion threads with "gee, I have no idea what you're talking about" comments.

That being said, to the matter at hand:

[The Ragin' South Asian]

I would have seal dribbled, or maybe pegged out.
I would have been done once people started posting for real, but I had to get in a last one, just for you.

[Mackay]

Antrax, you are so much better at explaining things than me. Seriously. (I still prefer minraise to "standard" raise here, though - I hate minimum raises on principle but it doesn't seem as stupid as putting in half your stack in this spot.)


While I'm in the thread, I ran the preflop odds of AT versus big pairs and dominating aces through an odds calculator. Against a pair higher than tens and lower than Aces it's about 71/29, which is all good, but against a bigger Ace it's about 71/24 with a 5% chance of a tie (rounded to the nearest percentages). Given the fact that I basically assumed AK on the opponent's part, that small shift in equity was probably enough to make the call definitely bad as opposed to questionable, and to make me feel fortunate that he did have Queens.

Oh well At least I'll remember more clearly the odds when dominated for next time.

[Mackay]

[Samadhi]

That is wrong on so many levels.
_________________
And he lived happily ever after. Except for the dieing at the end and the heartbreak in between.

[Antrax]

[Mackay]

My bad, I thought I mentioned that the table was down to 5-handed. Given the tightness of the players, I felt comfortable raising ATo under the gun here.

However, the size of the raise was indefensible. Putting a third of my stack in almost commits me right then and there. A smaller bet would probably have still scared them if nobody was holding anything (like I said, they were super-tight), and a limp might have been even better, because then I can get away cheap before the flop when QQ guy raises, or scare them off on the flop whether or not my hand hits. I think the initial raise was the worst part of my play there.

I agree with you on almost everything, but I've got to disagree with your "no pot odds" comment. By the time the action came back around to me (after my initial bet of 480, the reraise all in, and the blinds folding for another 270 chips), I'm calling 970 for a chance at a pot of 480 + [480+970](he had me covered here, so we'll make it the rest of my stack) + 270 + 970 (my call) = 3170. I'm not sure if I'm supposed to include my call there, so correct me if my maths is wrong, but I think "1 to 1" is misleading, given the fact that a third of my money is no longer mine, but part of the pot. 3170/970 is about 3.27, so that would put me at about 2.27:1 - which is still slightly less than the pot odds I would have needed.

I'm not denying it's a bad call and I wasn't getting the odds, but it wasn't 1 to 1. Everything else in your post I agree with, and I consider myself thoroughly chastised.

[Antrax]

Hmm, for some reason I misread the bet sizes. In that situation, you still don't have pot odds because of your own assessment (you'll need 3:1 as you expect to be dominated by a better ace), but it's a lot closer.
_________________
After years of disappointment with get rich quick schemes, I know I'm gonna get rich with this scheme. And quick!

[Mackay]

Yeah, but still horrible.

Here's a silly story about live tells which I just remembered, this is as good a place to put it as any.

During the live tournament which I busted out of with the aforementioned AJ hand, I picked up pocket Aces. I cold-called a raise from the guy directly on my right - I'd had no cards to start out the night and had come across as very tight, so I didn't want to scare him off.

A note about this guy: He was one of those people who thinks he's an absolute professional. He was explaining things to me like how on an earlier board of AAA5A, the guy who had a 5 would win, and how "oh, you're an online player? You should move up in limits where they really respect your raises." Basically he was one of many people that night who made me really sad that I play 0.10/0.25 tables and not the $10/$20 that they do (ohhhh if I could afford it! ). (Another one had told me how he played $10/$20, I said his online bankroll must be pretty impressive and he said yeah, he'd put in $1000. "But I had it up to $3000 at one point!" Oh, that's nice.)

Anyway, this guy thought he was a total professional, but he was just a tight/passive player preflop and a semi-calling-station postflop. When I first sat down I'd seen him call down strong pot-sized bets on an A75JT board with 87, and later on I watched him fold his way down to 2BB, when he finally called someone's raise with AK and improved his stack a bit.

I keep getting off track. So, I picked up pocket Aces and cold-called the guy. I was really pleased that he was in the hand, because at that point I only had the "calls with any made hand, no matter how bad" part of the read on him. The board is pretty inoffensive - there was a bit of a scare with a possible straight, but I could tell from his play that he hadn't made it (or at least I assumed he'd come alive when he made the nuts, most players of that type do). So I'm betting into him the whole way, and my bet on the river was fairly large. So he leans over and starts staring intently into my face. For some reason I found the fact that he was looking for tells so ridiculous that I started laughing at him. He called immediately, I roll over my Aces and he mucks.

Later on in the night, I've observed that he's actually playing scared (the folding his way down, etc, and backing off from most large bets) - it might have been a result of his stack getting shorter, I'm not sure. Anyway, I limp some kind of drawing hand UTG (the table wasn't raising much, I had a big chiplead, and was getting a bit impatient), and everyone folds around to this dude. The flop comes along, I've made second pair or something crappy. I don't remember the exact hand. The guy minbets into me and I realise just how short his stack is, so I raise enough to put him all in, figuring I've got the big stack and a crappy pair which might improve. He starts doing the staring me down thing again. I remember last time, and wonder what will happen if I start laughing again. So I do, and he instantly folds.

My favourite part about this is the fact that I bet he's really pleased with himself for picking up my "tell"! I'm going to use it on him at least once per session from now on

Speaking of live tells, Ant, I think it was you who made a post about them in the old poker thread? I owe you a thankyou for that, because I'm extremely inexperienced in live play (I think I've played live fewer than ten times, ever), but you still managed to save me some chips in that tournament. I was going to limp another crappy drawing hand after a couple of other limpers - something like 79s or 9To or something. Just before the action gets to me I see the bloke two places to my left fondling his chip stack, so I change my mind and fold. Sure enough he puts in a big raise that I would never have been able to call. So, thanks for that I've always remembered that post, and have followed its advice every time I play. Preflop I keep my hands under the table until it's my turn to act, and then put them straight back there - and if I do look at my hand before it's my turn, I'm always very careful to take my hands straight back under the table afterward, and to watch other players' hands. =) Unfortunately, I can't do anything about the fact that I blush.

[Antrax]

It sounds your live game is much better than the ones I attend. The ones I attend are one of two:
"The Bore", with a bunch of mtg geeks. There's no booze, smoking or anything, the jokes are all lame, and they all know I'm a better player so they keep trying to outplay me. In that game, it's basically about trading blows until I hit a monster, then trap someone into trying to bluff me out, then sit on my ass and dominate them in the endgame. It sounds more exciting than it is.
"The Seal-clubbing", with a friend of mine from highschool and his friends. Most of them work for Google so they don't care about money, and almost all of them are terrible to the point they call people down with bottom pairs on the river, etc. In that game, all I have to do is to basically rock up and pray that they won't decide to escalate the blinds too fast (basically, someone keeps track, that someone is often stoned and just says "oh, yeah, it's now" whenever someone asks him when are blinds escalating. So effectively, they escalate whenever someone gets bored with the current ones). Also, all of them have terrible, terrible tells, which don't really help much because they have no idea what they're holding half of the time (there was a guy with trips who was extremely smug even though the board had four to a straight and four to a flush).

So, glad to see SOMEONE is using the more delicate aspects of the game.

Oh, as for blushing, you could wear a mask. Gets rid of the tell AND intimidates your opponents.
_________________
After years of disappointment with get rich quick schemes, I know I'm gonna get rich with this scheme. And quick!

[Mackay]

The most noteworthy (criticism-worthy?) hand from tonight:

3-table bar tournament. It's down to 6 players and the top three places pay. Blinds are 20k/40k. My stack is about 260k and the player directly on my left has me covered, probably with about 300-350k. All four of the other players have stacks <100k and, apart from one solid shortstack player, seem determined to fold their way to third place.

I am UTG+1 and pick up pocket sixes. I look at the stacks of the blinds, who are holding about 80k each, and raise to 100k. I figured to get an easy steal here, and to not be in horrible shape when I get a call. Good/bad? I'm thinking the play itself had a solid idea behind it but my position was iffy (too early), despite the fact that the play was 6-handed.

Big stack on my left agonises over his hand for about 30 seconds, then pushes all in. A tiny stack also calls, which is rather irrelevant at this point. I had seen bigstack accumulate his big stack - he had been all in preflop three times at the final table already, and shown down AQ, JJ, and JJ. I count the rest of my chips, about 160k left, and decide to fold.

Again, good/bad? My thought behind it was almost entirely tactical. Even if the shortstack who was in doubled up, even with my fold I was still second in chips. Bigstack had only shown down premium hands, so I thought it was a coinflip at best and a bigger pair at worst. I had fantastic pot odds, but given his track record and the fact that I felt pretty confident at this point (enough that I thought I could make it to heads-up for sure) made me feel like I could find a better spot, despite having put more than a third of my stack into the middle.

Result: Bigstack turns over AcJc and shorty has AK. The board comes all low cards and I would have made a set of sixes. *sigh* But it's okay, I did indeed come back to win the tournament

[Antrax]

Your raise was terrible. You're guaranteed at least third place if you don't screw around, why would you want to put over a third of your stack in there? You know the small stacks are waiting for the all-in hand, so you can expect to get about even odds, even ignoring the BS on your left. When considering him, making any move unless you have to (ie, you feel people are raising your blinds because they feel you're being timid) is a mistake.
Your fold was, of course, correct. The big stack wouldn't risk going down to sixth place unless he thinks he has you beat, and from what you saw until that point, he's usually correct.
_________________
After years of disappointment with get rich quick schemes, I know I'm gonna get rich with this scheme. And quick!

[Mackay]

You know, I'd been agonising over whether a limp or something would have been better, with the intention of calling a push from any shorties. I hadn't even considered the tactical benefits of just not playing it at all

The only thing is, bigstack was really tight, and even when it was, say, four-handed and he had the button, I never once saw him even attempt to steal, despite the fact that he had a solid image and the blinds were playing scared. I wanted to keep pressure on the shortstacks and nobody else was doing it. The problem with sitting back and waiting is that the shorties are doing the same, and if I wait for them to push then I'm going to know I'm beat whenever I call them. Admittedly by that point it's not much of a blow to my stack, but it keeps them in. Given how tight BS was, I simply was not expecting him to play once I raised - and was rather surprised that he shoved AJ, honestly - and I was perfectly content to take on any of the baby stacks with a hand that is probably ahead. With the blinds as big as they were and the table playing so passively, I don't think a steal was necesarily wrong here, though looking at it from a "risk aversion" viewpoint I definitely see where you're coming from.

I think you're probably right, and I may well just have a skewed view of the hand because BS's turned out to be worse than what I expected. I was thinking far more about catching up to/overtaking BS than staying in at that point, honestly - I was already plotting how to play against him heads-up! I probably should have been more focused on actually getting there first.

[Mackay]

Not really asking for advice, I just want to act gleeful because I'm playing so damned well today. I was having an off week till last night.

I totally tilted this one guy online, I think. In one hand he check-called flop and check-called turn, I had paired an Ace and was betting around 2/3 of the limped pot on both streets in order to a) look like I was only continuation-betting and b) just barely price out any flush draws on the turn, when two flush draws became possible. He checked to me on the river, and I checked behind, because the heart draw had hit (the one which had been there on the flop) and he'd played it so obviously. He took down a tiny, tiny pot with his nut flush.

A few hands later I get heads-up with him again. This hand was not so good - I had limped a small pair in late position and I flopped a set. I smooth-called his flop bet and checked behind him on the turn. I kinda slowplayed myself into a tough spot, because the river brought a third flush card again. Opponent bet out, but the bet looked scared and I felt stupid for not extracting enough value - also I remembered him checking the flush out of position last time - so I raise and he folds.

A couple of rounds after that I pick up AK in the SB and raise the pot, the one guy calls again. Flop comes QQJ. I worry, because this looks like the kind of range he'd be calling a raise with, so I check it. He checks behind. Turn is a 9, I check (remembering his attempted slowplay/check-raise with the flush again) and he checks behind again. The river is a 4. At this point I think he's probably got nothing, as I think he'd try to extract at least some value out of me with AQ/AJ/KQ etc, and he was unlikely to have called a raise with KT or T8. I check to him again because I don't see a need to bet, my hand will likely be good at showdown. Opponent fires out a gigantic bet which is more than half of his remaining stack. This makes absolutely no sense to me. He bet on the card least likely to have made any kind of hand whatsoever. I had to decide whether he was an idiot who had bodged a slowplay and was now betting way too much on the end in an attempt to get some money, or whether he was simply a mediocre player who had seen no strength from me and was trying to take down an otherwise unwinnable pot with a bluff (made a little obvious by its excessive size combined with the fact that he left himself some chips). I decided it was the latter and called. He shows 93s (so much for my read on his raise-calling range), and I take down a massive pot. (Actually, I've got a good record for "hero calls" in general, because I'm good at feeling whether the way a hand was played makes any sense. The problem is I tend to hero-call while ahead and get sucked out on anyway )

I wish I were still playing with that guy, I feel like he was scared of me because I'd been reading him so well =)

[Amb]

I have always wondered why Mackay reminded me of Christina Ricci. Now I know...

[Antrax]

Your third call was awful. Again risking a lot to gain little. He'd played the exact same way he would've played had he had a real monster, and even if he was "bluffing", there are very few hands that DON'T beat you. It's enough he has A4 and you're busted, or any small pair, all sorts of weird crap like KT, etc. Very bad call.
_________________
After years of disappointment with get rich quick schemes, I know I'm gonna get rich with this scheme. And quick!

[Mackay]

Maybe, but I was reading his soul at the time

I disagree with his playing a monster like that, to be honest. I feel as though he'd try to extract some value in position on the turn. The whole point of my call was that the way he played it didn't make sense to me with him holding any real hand. But, from a risk vs reward perspective you have knocked some sense into me.

[Antrax]

Seeing as there's no such thing as a soul, it's all about risk vs. reward
_________________
After years of disappointment with get rich quick schemes, I know I'm gonna get rich with this scheme. And quick!

[MatthewV]

I think the title shold be "Hands that Mackay won when Antrax would have folded"

I don't feel I qualify to be a critic in this thread though.

[Zag]

[Amb]

[Zag]

Here is my favorite poker hand of all time (that I have played). I'll post in stages so you can critique as it goes.

Live no limit hold'em, $1/$2 blinds. I have about $230 in front ot me and I'm in the cut-off seat (one behind the button).

UTG limps, next player (who seems to be a good player) raises to $6, two more callers to me. The button is a very tight player who is not very good. He doesn't seem to have much of a concept of position. I look down to see JTs (spades, I think).

What's your move?

[Antrax]

Call. You have the implied odds, and most likely you'll have the button.
_________________
After years of disappointment with get rich quick schemes, I know I'm gonna get rich with this scheme. And quick!

[Zag]

Of course! It's an easy call -- the only other consideration was to raise to make sure I buy the button, but with such a strong drawing hand I want to keep my implied odds up. Plus I don't want to get blown out if original raiser re-raises.

Button folds, as hoped, and both blinds and limper call.

7 players to the flop, x $6. Yowza!

Flop is J T 4 rainbow (that is, 3 different suits). Check to preflop raiser who bets $20. Player after him calls, and next player folds. What do you do?

[Antrax]

The bet puts him on two high cards, either an overpair, an ace-something that hit or an ace-something that missed. The call, however, is scary, as it could mean a set - the weakest hand I can imagine someone calling preflop and then again on the flop with is KQ. So, here I would raise, to see where I'm at. Calling here is a mistake because two pair is too fragile and there's no new info coming in anyway soon, and folding here is inhuman
_________________
After years of disappointment with get rich quick schemes, I know I'm gonna get rich with this scheme. And quick!

[Zag]

My thinking exactly. I'd be glad to get heads up with preflop raiser, who can be reliably put on AJ, AQ, AK, QQ, KK, AA, all of which I am way ahead of. I raised to $75, fully expecting either to take it there or to get heads up with an AA or KK that doesn't know how to fold.

SB folded. BB CALLS ALL-IN! We count it down and he had $72 when he made the call. Preflop raiser thinks for a bit and folds. Then the player after him RE-RAISES ALL-IN for about the size of my stack. We count it and I have him covered by $5, so it is $145 to call. Consider also that, if I call and lose, I'm done for the night because I've reached my daily limit. (I bought into this table with $180 after taking a drubbing at a different casino.)

There's more info before I had to make a decision, but what are you thinking now? I didn't know much about this player, as he had only been at the table for 6 or 7 hands. He hadn't gotten out of line so far, but he seemed a little loose, having seen probably 4 of those flops. Of course, I've seen a lot of flops (in position) too, since the table was pretty passive preflop.

[Antrax]

Fold. You raised to get infromation. You got that information - most likely you're beat. Use it.
_________________
After years of disappointment with get rich quick schemes, I know I'm gonna get rich with this scheme. And quick!

[Zag]

Well, I didn't raise to get information. I raised to isolate the pre-flop raiser and to ruin the odds of anyone drawing. But people draw without having odds all the time. I never bet 1/3 of my stack just for information.

Anyway, here was my thinking.

My gut was telling me that this wasn't really a strength raise, but something else. However, assuming the raiser is an expert player, this is an easy fold -- it can ONLY be a set. With the caller all in, the side pot has only $3 in it. A semi-bluff makes no sense at all, because you can't bluff out the all-in. On the other hand, expert players are not generally playing $1/$2 tables in Vegas. (That is, there is only I. )

So I called time and was pondering. Then the player stood up, which many people find to be a tell but I do not consider to be reliable. He said "I might have a set" as if he were trying to get me to fold. Of course, it often happens that people say what they really have in the hopes that it convinces you it is false, so I still didn't act.

What could he realistically have? 44 is completely consistent with his play so far. TT is too. probably, though that might have raised preflop. JJ is even more likely to have raised preflop. AA is not out of the question, deciding to slowplay preflop and then only to call the raise on the flop for some gawd-awful reason. I've seen dumber plays. I was seriously considering calling, thinking that I had four outs (twice) against 44 and I was way ahead of AA.

Anyway, at about this point, he mumbled, "Well, you'll see it anyway, because of the all-in." He didn't say it clearly, which I found to be important. Nobody is THAT good of an actor, to have mumbled it like that. Before you look at the spoilered text, what would you do?

"That's it!" I shouted. "You don't have it!" I had looked into his soul, and found it wanting. "I call!" I declared, throwing my hand face-up. Turn and river were not interesting. The BB had AJ, Mr. semi-bluff at a dry side pot never showed his hand, and I pulled in the biggest pot of the night.

I hope you enjoyed it. I still enjoy telling it.

[Antrax]

He wants you to fold, which means he thinks you might have him beat, which means he'd not a set of any kind (high sets don't expect to lose, low set doesn't expect you to ponder a call if he's beaten). So, call.
[edit]
Hurray.
_________________
After years of disappointment with get rich quick schemes, I know I'm gonna get rich with this scheme. And quick!

[Mackay]

My opinion of the hand, from a far-less-proficient player's point of view. It will be mostly similar, I think, though maybe less/differently-thought-out.

Preflop: easy call, obviously.

Flop: A bet of $20 into a $42 pot is a little weird here, due to the fact that 7 players saw the flop. From a bad player who knows a couple of things about poker but is not very good at applying them, it could be an incredibly misguided continuation bet. But you said he seems like a good player, and that's a bit of a concern. The bet seems like a size which is more likely to get more money into the pot, rather than actually force anybody to fold. (although in a live $1/$2 game I suppose there aren't that many people with a conscious awareness of their pot odds? Am I wrong?) It makes most sense as either a blocking bet with a weak draw (AK or AQ in particular are also consistent with the preflop raise), or a sucker bet with a huge hand.

So I actually disagree with Antrax when he says the call is the most worrying thing. If I'm the guy to preflop raiser's left, I'm looking at 3:1 pot odds, as well as huge implied odds if I hit a hand (the pot is only going to get juicier if/when people call). If I interpreted the intial $20 bet as weak, I would call here with AQ or AK easily, including my overcards as outs. If I felt it was a sucker bet with a set (quite possible if the person is a bit sneaky), I need 5.1:1 to draw at my gutshot and it's a lot harder - but I almost think I would get it here, particularly live.** A flop of JTx is going to connect with a lot of hands, and the initial bet was very small. In addition, but this is me personally, if I know a player is inclined to c-bet I am calling them with incredibly marginal hands in the hope of taking the pot off them on the turn. However, I feel KQ is most likely here, if the player is halfway competent - a set really should be raising in this spot (a combination of flop texture and number of players).

There are a lot of interpretations for the call by that person, and a lot of them do not indicate the strength felt by Ant. In fact, if I had a set here I would absolutely raise in order to chase away straight draws - again, a flop of JTx, even rainbow, is going to connect to a lot of hands, and with 7 players to the flop I'd be willing to bet there were a lot of drawing hands out there.

But, I'm rambling about something very tangential. I absolutely agree with the raise here, I just disagree on some of the specifics. A raise tests both the preflop raiser and the caller, who might have just been hoping to get a lot of people along for his draw.

I haven't read the next posts yet, I think I'm going to take a short break.

** Just so you don't think I'm a complete donkey, I don't make a habit of calling with gutshots. However, if I have a gutshot with overcards and have a player as either weak or continuation-betting (and the bet is small, obviously) I would tend to call here in position and then (usually) take the pot down on the turn if they give up. I don't think I would do it in this spot simply due to the number of players (and my position relative to them at this time), but I wanted to offer a few alternative reasons for the call. Just because you're supposed to have a better hand to call than you should to make an initial bet, doesn't mean people actually do, especially wannabe low-stakes Vegas pros

[Antrax]